Revision as of 03:15, 1 November 2024

1 Predicted Race Times

The following tables give predictions of race performance at various distances. The prediction uses V̇O₂max calculations up to marathon distance, then David F. Cameron's Model for longer distances. However, predicting race performance for ultramarathon distances does not have much value as factors other than aerobic fitness are significant. Even small issues in ultramarathons can have a dramatic impact on your finish time.

2 Jack Daniel's Training Paces

These training paces are used in Jack Daniels Running Formula. Note that Jack Daniels does not give a pace for 800 meter Aerobic Intervals, so these are calculated from interpolating from other times.

2.1 Modified Tempo Paces

The second edition of Jack Daniels provides a table of paces for longer but slower tempo runs. However, the third edition has dropped this table, along with the use of continuous runs at Tempo pace, instead using Tempo only for interval training. The tempo paces are only given in the book in increments of 5 VDOT values, so this calculator uses linear interpolation for the intervening values. Values for VDOT values below 30 uses a calculation.

3 FIRST Training Pace

These training paces are used in FIRST, (Furman Institute of Running and Scientific Training) programs. These paces are calculated, so may differ by a second or so from the published tables

3.1 FIRST Tempo and Interval Training

The 3200 meter pace is not included in the book, but the FIRST team has indicated that it can be calculated from the 1600M time.

3.2 FIRST Long Run

Paces for long runs based on the FIRST approach of using Marathon Pace (MP) plus a fixed number of seconds per mile.

3.3 Fellrnr's Modified FIRST Long Run

This is my personal modification to the FIRST approach of adding a fixed number of seconds per mile to marathon pace. I believe that adding 15 seconds/mile to a 6:00 pace is a much greater difference than adding it to a 10:00 pace. The figures below add a percentage of the MP to the time. The percentage is calculated so that it the average across the main VDOT values is similar to the FIRST values. This gives slower runners a larger offset from MP than faster runners.

4 High Intensity Interval Training and Tabata Paces

I don't generally recommend using running for High Intensity Interval Training (HIIT) workouts because I believe that for many people there is less risk of injury by using a stationary bike. However, if you'd like to know what your paces would need to be here's a table for some of the more common HIIT intensities. (170% V̇O₂max corresponds with the intensity used by the Tabata protocol).

5 V̇O₂max Paces

Sometimes it is useful to know what pace corresponds to a given percentage of VO2max, so the table below provides some estimates.

6 Long Run Difficulty

The table below shows the percentage of Glycogen used on runs of different length and pace. This is one way of evaluating the relative difficulty of different longer runs. The table makes use of a number of assumptions, as listed below, but I believe this is still a useful way of evaluating training runs.

• The calculation assumes that the marathon distance at marathon pace uses are hundred percent of available Glycogen. However the percentages can also be looked at as a percentage of the difficulty of the marathon race.
• The research article by Romijn in 1993 provides the calculation for relative Glycogen use a different intensity exercise. (For those interested, the formula used is y = 0.0021x² + 0.7896x - 21.031, where X is the percentage of V̇O₂max and Y is the relative percent of Glycogen used.)
• 100% of V̇O₂max (vV̇O₂max) is assumed to be .
• The energy cost of running a given distance is assumed to be constant, allowing the percentage of V̇O₂max to be determined by running speed.
• The calculator assumes that the rate of glycogen consumption remains constant for a given pace.
• Remember that All models are wrong.

6.1 Long Run Difficulty with Absolute Offsets

Many marathon training plans use an absolute offset from marathon pace for their long runs, such as "marathon pace plus 60 seconds/mile". The table below uses this approach, even though it has the flaw that a fixed offset is proportionally larger for faster paces. For instance, slowing up by 60 seconds per mile is a much greater reduction in pace for someone with a marathon pace of 6:00 min/mile than someone running 10:00 min/mile.

6.2 Long Run Difficulty with Relative Offsets

The table below uses a similar approach, but uses a percentage of the target pace rather than an absolute offset.

6.3 Predicted Race Paces from VDOT with Heat Index Adjustment

The predictions for 40f are the baseline values, with adjustments for higher temperatures. The Impact of Heat on Marathon Performance is based on research for faster marathon runners. These predictions are most appropriate for someone running a three hour marathon. In addition, these figures are a statistical average, so individual performance can be significantly different.

6.4 Weight Adjusted Race Times

Adjustments based on changing body weight assume that the change occurs only from body fat, which may not be the case. See Weight Loss and Performance for more details. (Included are critical power estimates, but these should be taking as only a rough estimate. CP(m) is for males, CP(f) is for females, rCP is a running power equivalent of the biking critical power, which seems to be about 20% higher for Stryd.)

6.5 Altitude Adjustment

This table shows how altitude can impact running performance. The same scaling factor is used for all distances and the calculation assumes you are well acclimated to the altitude.

7 Long Runs for Jack Daniels Marathon Plans

These tables are included because the definitions in the book are a little complex, and it is not obvious what the total distance, time or difficulty is for of some of these long runs. This is especially true of the elite plan for non-elite runners, where there is scaling of the time & distance. These workouts are not intended to replace the Jack Daniels book, but to supplement it.

7.1 Jack Daniels 3rd Edition Marathon "Plan 2Q" Long Runs

7.2 Jack Daniels 3rd Edition Marathon "4 Week Cycle Plan" Long Runs

7.3 Jack Daniels 2nd Edition Marathon "Plan A" Long Runs

7.4 Jack Daniels 2nd Edition "Plan to Complete a Marathon" Long Runs

7.5 Jack Daniels Scaled Elite/12 Weeks Plan Long Runs

As the name suggests, the Jack Daniels Elite Plan is intended for elite marathon runners with a race time of 2:10 or less (VDOT 77+). The plan calls for scaling the workouts for sub-elite runners, with each mile being replaced with a time at the given pace. So an elite runner's 8 miles at easy pace becomes 48 minutes at easy pace. Likewise, marathon and tempo paces are scaled to 5 minutes and 4:45 respectively. This plan is called the elite plan in the second edition and the 12 week plan in the third edition.

7.6 Jack Daniels Marathon Unscaled Elite/12 Weeks Plan Long Runs

This version of the elite plan is without the scaling, and is not what Jack Daniels recommends. It is included here for comparison.