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From Fellrnr.com, Running tips
→Projected Performance
One key note from this analysis is that weather will play a huge role in your results. If you are seeking a race to achieve a specific time goal, such as Boston Qualification, choosing a race that has a high probability of cool or cold weather becomes important. You are probably better off with a hillier course than warm weather for instance.
==Projected Performance==
Use the 'heat index' or 'feels like' temperatures rather than raw thermometer readings in the table below. (The [[Perceived Temperature For Runners]] is quite different and should not be used here!) You can also get temperature adjustment via the [[VDOT Calculator]].
{| {{table}}
| align="center" style="background:#f0f0f0;"|'''40f'''
|}
Example usage: You expect to run a 4:20 in 40 degree weather, but it’s going to be 70. Looking across the 4:20 line to the 70 degree column you find 4:53, which is a 19% reduction in performance.
==The Details==
The study looked at 140 marathon results from 6 races (Boston, New York, Twin Cities, Grandma's, Richmond, Hartford, and Vancouver). Only the first 300 finish times were used as races only started recording all finishers in the 1990s. This gives a pool of 42,000 finish times. The races were divided up into four groups
