Changes

http://jfsavage.smugmug.com/photos/817939120_uZxSb-X3O.jpg

I’ve taken two approaches to extending the graph, as you can see below. The first approach is to assume that the decline in performance is linear with a zero origin, as shown by the red line. The second approach I've taken is to assume the decline is linear from the two noted end pointsof each curve, as shown by the other colored lines. This will give us two projections a projection of performance decline and I’ve created tables a table at the end of this page based on these assumptionsthis assumption.  http://jfsavage.smugmug.com/photos/818611486_iAHcm-O. jpg 

Given all these problems, is this approach usable or useful? I think believe there is some use, value as long as you understand the limitationsof the approach. If the charts below say you can run a 4:48 marathon based on your cool weather performance and the projected temperature, this does not mean you can run a 4:48 in practice. What it does provide is a sense of just how much you will need to slow down on a hot day, and how important weather is in your results. Hopefully this information will cause allow you to reset your goals and promote a flexible approach on race day.

==Zero Origin Table=={| {{table}}| align="center" style="background:#f0f0f0;"|'''40f'''| align="center" style="background:#f0f0f0;"|'''50f'''| align="center" style="background:#f0f0f0;"|'''60f'''| align="center" style="background:#f0f0f0;"|'''70f'''| align="center" style="background:#f0f0f0;"|'''80f'''|-| 3:00:00||3:05:24 (3%)||3:10:48 (6%)||3:16:12 (9%)||3:21:36 (12%)|-| 3:05:00||3:10:42 (3%)||3:16:25 (6%)||3:22:07 (9%)||3:27:49 (12%)|-| 3:10:00||3:16:01 (3%)||3:22:02 (6%)||3:28:03 (10%)||3:34:04 (13%)|-| 3:15:00||3:21:20 (3%)||3:27:40 (7%)||3:34:01 (10%)||3:40:21 (13%)|-| 3:20:00||3:26:40 (3%)||3:33:20 (7%)||3:40:00 (10%)||3:46:40 (13%)|-| 3:25:00||3:32:00 (3%)||3:39:00 (7%)||3:46:01 (10%)||3:53:01 (14%)|-| 3:30:00||3:37:21 (4%)||3:44:42 (7%)||3:52:03 (11%)||3:59:24 (14%)|-| 3:35:00||3:42:42 (4%)||3:50:25 (7%)||3:58:07 (11%)||4:05:49 (14%)|-| 3:40:00||3:48:04 (4%)||3:56:08 (7%)||4:04:12 (11%)||4:12:16 (15%)|-| 3:45:00||3:53:26 (4%)||4:01:52 (8%)||4:10:19 (11%)||4:18:45 (15%)|-| 3:50:00||3:58:49 (4%)||4:07:38 (8%)||4:16:27 (12%)||4:25:16 (15%)|-| 3:55:00||4:04:12 (4%)||4:13:24 (8%)||4:22:37 (12%)||4:31:49 (16%)|-| 4:00:00||4:09:36 (4%)||4:19:12 (8%)||4:28:48 (12%)||4:38:24 (16%)|-| 4:05:00||4:15:00 (4%)||4:25:00 (8%)||4:35:01 (12%)||4:45:01 (16%)|-| 4:10:00||4:20:25 (4%)||4:30:50 (8%)||4:41:15 (13%)||4:51:40 (17%)|-| 4:15:00||4:25:50 (4%)||4:36:40 (9%)||4:47:31 (13%)||4:58:21 (17%)|-| 4:20:00||4:31:16 (4%)||4:42:32 (9%)||4:53:48 (13%)||5:05:04 (17%)|-| 4:25:00||4:36:42 (4%)||4:48:24 (9%)||5:00:07 (13%)||5:11:49 (18%)|-| 4:30:00||4:42:09 (5%)||4:54:18 (9%)||5:06:27 (14%)||5:18:36 (18%)|-| 4:35:00||4:47:36 (5%)||5:00:12 (9%)||5:12:49 (14%)||5:25:25 (18%)|-| 4:40:00||4:53:04 (5%)||5:06:08 (9%)||5:19:12 (14%)||5:32:16 (19%)|-| 4:45:00||4:58:32 (5%)||5:12:04 (10%)||5:25:37 (14%)||5:39:09 (19%)|-| 4:50:00||5:04:01 (5%)||5:18:02 (10%)||5:32:03 (15%)||5:46:04 (19%)|-| 4:55:00||5:09:30 (5%)||5:24:00 (10%)||5:38:31 (15%)||5:53:01 (20%)|-| 5:00:00||5:15:00 (5%)||5:30:00 (10%)||5:45:00 (15%)||6:00:00 (20%)|-| 5:05:00||5:20:30 (5%)||5:36:00 (10%)||5:51:31 (15%)||6:07:01 (20%)|-| 5:10:00||5:26:01 (5%)||5:42:02 (10%)||5:58:03 (16%)||6:14:04 (21%)|-| 5:15:00||5:31:32 (5%)||5:48:04 (11%)||6:04:37 (16%)||6:21:09 (21%)|-| 5:20:00||5:37:04 (5%)||5:54:08 (11%)||6:11:12 (16%)||6:28:16 (21%)|-| 5:25:00||5:42:36 (5%)||6:00:12 (11%)||6:17:49 (16%)||6:35:25 (22%)|-| 5:30:00||5:48:09 (6%)||6:06:18 (11%)||6:24:27 (17%)||6:42:36 (22%)|-| 5:35:00||5:53:42 (6%)||6:12:24 (11%)||6:31:07 (17%)||6:49:49 (22%)|-| 5:40:00||5:59:16 (6%)||6:18:32 (11%)||6:37:48 (17%)||6:57:04 (23%)|-| 5:45:00||6:04:50 (6%)||6:24:40 (12%)||6:44:31 (17%)||7:04:21 (23%)|-| 5:50:00||6:10:25 (6%)||6:30:50 (12%)||6:51:15 (18%)||7:11:40 (23%)|-| 5:55:00||6:16:00 (6%)||6:37:00 (12%)||6:58:01 (18%)||7:19:01 (24%)|-| 6:00:00||6:21:36 (6%)||6:43:12 (12%)||7:04:48 (18%)||7:26:24 (24%)|} ==110 Offset TableProjected Performance==