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Impact of Heat on Marathon Performance

3,074 bytes removed, 20:21, 24 March 2010
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The study showed how finish time changes with temperature, and the results are shown in the following graph.
http://jfsavage.smugmug.com/photos/817939120_uZxSb-X3O.jpg
This graph works well for runners finishing the race at 3 hour pace or faster, but that excludes the majority of marathon runners. How can we extend this to slower runners?
==The Answer(s), Part 2==
I’ve taken two approaches to extending the graph, as you can see below. The first approach is to assume that the decline in performance is linear with a zero origin, as shown by the red line. The second approach I've taken is to assume the decline is linear from the two noted end pointsof each curve, as shown by the other colored lines. This will give us two projections a projection of performance decline and I’ve created tables a table at the end of this page based on these assumptionsthis assumption.  http://jfsavage.smugmug.com/photos/818611486_iAHcm-O. jpg 
==Your Mileage May Vary==
There are a lot of flaws in this approach, which you should be aware of.
* Extrapolating information is a flawed approach, as there is no way of knowing what the actual data would look like.
==Usability of the data==
Given all these problems, is this approach usable or useful? I think believe there is some use, value as long as you understand the limitationsof the approach. If the charts below say you can run a 4:48 marathon based on your cool weather performance and the projected temperature, this does not mean you can run a 4:48 in practice. What it does provide is a sense of just how much you will need to slow down on a hot day, and how important weather is in your results. Hopefully this information will cause allow you to reset your goals and promote a flexible approach on race day.
==Marathon Selection==
One key note from this analysis is that weather will play a huge role in your results. If you are seeking a race to achieve a specific time goal, such as Boston Qualification, choosing a race that has a high probability of cool or cold weather becomes important. You are probably better off with a hillier course than warm weather for instance.
==Zero Origin Table=={| {{table}}| align="center" style="background:#f0f0f0;"|'''40f'''| align="center" style="background:#f0f0f0;"|'''50f'''| align="center" style="background:#f0f0f0;"|'''60f'''| align="center" style="background:#f0f0f0;"|'''70f'''| align="center" style="background:#f0f0f0;"|'''80f'''|-| 3:00:00||3:05:24 (3%)||3:10:48 (6%)||3:16:12 (9%)||3:21:36 (12%)|-| 3:05:00||3:10:42 (3%)||3:16:25 (6%)||3:22:07 (9%)||3:27:49 (12%)|-| 3:10:00||3:16:01 (3%)||3:22:02 (6%)||3:28:03 (10%)||3:34:04 (13%)|-| 3:15:00||3:21:20 (3%)||3:27:40 (7%)||3:34:01 (10%)||3:40:21 (13%)|-| 3:20:00||3:26:40 (3%)||3:33:20 (7%)||3:40:00 (10%)||3:46:40 (13%)|-| 3:25:00||3:32:00 (3%)||3:39:00 (7%)||3:46:01 (10%)||3:53:01 (14%)|-| 3:30:00||3:37:21 (4%)||3:44:42 (7%)||3:52:03 (11%)||3:59:24 (14%)|-| 3:35:00||3:42:42 (4%)||3:50:25 (7%)||3:58:07 (11%)||4:05:49 (14%)|-| 3:40:00||3:48:04 (4%)||3:56:08 (7%)||4:04:12 (11%)||4:12:16 (15%)|-| 3:45:00||3:53:26 (4%)||4:01:52 (8%)||4:10:19 (11%)||4:18:45 (15%)|-| 3:50:00||3:58:49 (4%)||4:07:38 (8%)||4:16:27 (12%)||4:25:16 (15%)|-| 3:55:00||4:04:12 (4%)||4:13:24 (8%)||4:22:37 (12%)||4:31:49 (16%)|-| 4:00:00||4:09:36 (4%)||4:19:12 (8%)||4:28:48 (12%)||4:38:24 (16%)|-| 4:05:00||4:15:00 (4%)||4:25:00 (8%)||4:35:01 (12%)||4:45:01 (16%)|-| 4:10:00||4:20:25 (4%)||4:30:50 (8%)||4:41:15 (13%)||4:51:40 (17%)|-| 4:15:00||4:25:50 (4%)||4:36:40 (9%)||4:47:31 (13%)||4:58:21 (17%)|-| 4:20:00||4:31:16 (4%)||4:42:32 (9%)||4:53:48 (13%)||5:05:04 (17%)|-| 4:25:00||4:36:42 (4%)||4:48:24 (9%)||5:00:07 (13%)||5:11:49 (18%)|-| 4:30:00||4:42:09 (5%)||4:54:18 (9%)||5:06:27 (14%)||5:18:36 (18%)|-| 4:35:00||4:47:36 (5%)||5:00:12 (9%)||5:12:49 (14%)||5:25:25 (18%)|-| 4:40:00||4:53:04 (5%)||5:06:08 (9%)||5:19:12 (14%)||5:32:16 (19%)|-| 4:45:00||4:58:32 (5%)||5:12:04 (10%)||5:25:37 (14%)||5:39:09 (19%)|-| 4:50:00||5:04:01 (5%)||5:18:02 (10%)||5:32:03 (15%)||5:46:04 (19%)|-| 4:55:00||5:09:30 (5%)||5:24:00 (10%)||5:38:31 (15%)||5:53:01 (20%)|-| 5:00:00||5:15:00 (5%)||5:30:00 (10%)||5:45:00 (15%)||6:00:00 (20%)|-| 5:05:00||5:20:30 (5%)||5:36:00 (10%)||5:51:31 (15%)||6:07:01 (20%)|-| 5:10:00||5:26:01 (5%)||5:42:02 (10%)||5:58:03 (16%)||6:14:04 (21%)|-| 5:15:00||5:31:32 (5%)||5:48:04 (11%)||6:04:37 (16%)||6:21:09 (21%)|-| 5:20:00||5:37:04 (5%)||5:54:08 (11%)||6:11:12 (16%)||6:28:16 (21%)|-| 5:25:00||5:42:36 (5%)||6:00:12 (11%)||6:17:49 (16%)||6:35:25 (22%)|-| 5:30:00||5:48:09 (6%)||6:06:18 (11%)||6:24:27 (17%)||6:42:36 (22%)|-| 5:35:00||5:53:42 (6%)||6:12:24 (11%)||6:31:07 (17%)||6:49:49 (22%)|-| 5:40:00||5:59:16 (6%)||6:18:32 (11%)||6:37:48 (17%)||6:57:04 (23%)|-| 5:45:00||6:04:50 (6%)||6:24:40 (12%)||6:44:31 (17%)||7:04:21 (23%)|-| 5:50:00||6:10:25 (6%)||6:30:50 (12%)||6:51:15 (18%)||7:11:40 (23%)|-| 5:55:00||6:16:00 (6%)||6:37:00 (12%)||6:58:01 (18%)||7:19:01 (24%)|-| 6:00:00||6:21:36 (6%)||6:43:12 (12%)||7:04:48 (18%)||7:26:24 (24%)|} ==110 Offset TableProjected Performance==
{| {{table}}
| align="center" style="background:#f0f0f0;"|'''40f'''