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From Fellrnr.com, Running tips
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To explain how this works, let’s use a couple of examples. You’ll need to know the heat index//feels like temperature that you expect at the race, and your projected cool weather performance.
* Runner A is expecting to run a 2:40 marathon in cool conditions, but the race is projecting 60 degrees. The 15C/59C line at the 160 minute mark indicates a 3% drop in performance, so the corrected time would be nearly 5 minutes slower.
* Runner B is expecting to run a 3:30 marathon in cool conditions, but the race is projecting 70 degrees. The graph only goes to 3 hours, so we will assume a liner progression, which is likely to be too conservative, but will give us an idea. At 3 hours, the 20C/68C line is 12 9 percent. If we scale by 4/3, that gives 1612%. On 3:30 (210 minutes), 1612% gives a corrected time of 43:0455, a slowdown of 30 25 minutes.
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