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==The Answer, Part 1==
The study showed how finish time changes with temperature, and the results are shown in the following graph.
This graph works well for runners finishing the race at 3 hour pace or faster, but that excludes the majority of marathon runners. How can we extend this to slower runners?
The approach I've taken is to assume the decline is linear from the end points of each curve, as shown by the colored lines. This will give us a projection of performance decline and I’ve created a table at the end of this page based on this assumption.
==Perception of temperature==
As noted in [[Running in the Heat]], exercising in mild conditions of 60f/15c significantly impacts performance, but the perception is one of fatigue rather than overheating. When pacing marathons, I have consistently found that runners in mild conditions between 50f/10c and 70f/20c seem to be generally unaware of the heat stress and instead feel fatigued. It can be hard to convince these runners to shed excess clothing, but once they cool off, they can often partly recover. Running marathon+ distance training runs on a frequent basis, I have found a similar phenomenon if I don't shed clothing fast enough to compensate for rising temperatures. My perception is of being a comfortable temperature, but feeling fatigued, often to the point of being sleepy. Shedding clothing so that I feel slightly cool greatly reduces the sense of fatigue, and my pace picks up even though my perceived effort remains the same.
==Your Mileage May Vary==
There are a lot of flaws in this approach, which you should be aware of.
==Projected Performance==
Use the 'heat index' or 'feels like' temperatures rather than raw thermometer readings in the table below. (The [[Perceived Temperature For Runners]] is quite different and should not be used here!) You can also get temperature adjustment via the [[VDOT Calculator]].
{| {{table}}class="wikitable"
| align="center" style="background:#f0f0f0;"|'''40f'''
| align="center" style="background:#f0f0f0;"|'''50f'''
==See Also==
* Running calculators
** [[Running Heat Model]]
** [[Perceived Temperature For Runners]]
** [[Heat limited running pace]]
** [[Optimum Running Temperature]]
* [[Heat Acclimation Training]]
* [[Cramps]]
* [[Excel Macros for pace]] (That's how the table above was created)
* [[Running in the Heat]]
* [[Heat Acclimation Training]]
==References==